Okay, last week, Qualcomm lost his seemingly lossless case against the FTC, largely because it appears that the judge was only physically in the courtroom during the trial. The ruling makes it seem that she and I observe very different tests.
In addition, the United States apparently declared war on Huawei, which could actually benefit Huawei. The result of both efforts could be to give the 5G market to China.
It's like watching everyone decide to run naked with really big scissors, and as you try to get that image out of your head, I'll guide you through what happened.
I will finish with my product of the week: an update of a product that has made my summer dream much more comfortable over the years. It's a water-cooled sleep improvement system, like what high-performance racing drivers and astronauts use to stay cool while working.
The history of Huawei
I have been following powerful companies for most of my career, and efforts to regulate them have not only had mixed results but have often had massive unintended consequences. The closest comparison I can make to what is happening between Huawei and the US UU This is what happened between Microsoft and the world in the 90s and early 2000s.
In a series of cases that began largely with the United States DoJ, Microsoft incurred massive penalties for non-competitive behavior. The sanctions caused the company to enter into a crisis and, to get out of that crisis, the executive management massively changed the business model of the company.
Microsoft went from a client blocking policy to an interoperation and open source policy. With Azure, he changed his focus from local hardware, both servers and PCs, to the cloud. Microsoft repaired its internal silos and a series of inefficiencies that had plagued the company for decades.
The result was a very different company, but possibly invulnerable, perhaps surpassed only by Amazon in the cloud and that seems to have a more long-term rise. The signature is so different from what it was that it is almost unrecognizable.
While the competitors who initiated the action against Microsoft thought that it would paralyze the company, in fact they strengthened it, and Microsoft survived Netscape and Sun Microsystems, which were the most aggressive architects of Microsoft's problems.
Huawei is more of a hardware / networking company than a software company like Microsoft, but the US. UU They have been subjecting it to even greater pressure. Huawei is also much more deeply connected to the Chinese government than any company in the United States is connected to the government of the United States.
At the moment, Huawei relies heavily on three US companies: Google for Android, Microsoft for Windows and Qualcomm for smart phone technology. It also depends on an Asian company, Softbank (ARM). All those firms have indicated that they will comply with the US order to stop doing business with Huawei, which would be catastrophic for the firm.
This means that the second largest smartphone provider in the world, with the backing of the Chinese government, will be forced to move away from the US technology. UU And Europe and it will become even more proprietary than Apple.
It is unlikely that China will let Huawei fail, so the result could be an Apple clone backed by the Chinese government with massive Chinese incentives to favor its products in the country. Given that China is the largest and potentially fastest growing global smartphone market, the result would be an inability for US technology providers to compete in the Chinese market.
Because of the scale, it would be an emerging global provider that, thanks to government resources, could undervalue all other providers in the segment with equal or better hardware. Of course, I would still have to capture the developers, but I could end up with the problem doing what Amazon did, and start with the open source version of Android to get an initial reference product.
We are not yet talking about the probable Chinese response against US smartphone providers (and in fact Apple is the only scale and the most likely target). Therefore, the likely outcome of this attack on Huawei is a blockade of US technology providers in China, an approach by the Chinese government on Apple as a problem to be solved, and a Huawei that will be much more powerful, as well as understandably annoying in the united states
This could also, and probably will, block Huawei as the main provider.
The history of Qualcomm
I attended the end of the FTC trial in California, and even before it was revealed in another case that the evidence that Apple had provided to the FTC was false, I did not think I had a case. My evaluation was largely due to two things. The architect of the theory that founded the FTC case, of an economist who seemed to live in an alternative universe, had actually been discredited.
There was no damage to the evidence, and even the possibility of future damage was refuted. The expert's main defense, I'm not kidding, seems to revolve around him, being a legend in his mind surrounded by other economists, all of whom were idiots with mental problems. The arrogance that came off man, particularly since his theory was effectively discarded, was incredible. Still, in her decision, Judge Koh seemed to take the theory as an established law, although she wisely never mentioned Shapero.
The other thing was that the rest of the FTC's argument seemed to revolve around internal memos in which people argued, but in fact they did not, things that would have been problematic for Qualcomm if they had done so. It is not at all unusual for executives to consider actions that have a questionable legal basis before the legal department of the firm enters and sits down, or that the most prudent executives take control.
It is not illegal to consider illegal things, especially if you do not know they are illegal. For example, I could plan a bank robbery, but unless I do, I'm pretty good. Now, I would not recommend doing it, but at this moment, considering making a bad choice is not illegal in itself.
However, given the outcome of this trial, I would certainly suggest that such discussions not be documented in the future and that executives receive regular compliance training so they can avoid such discussions in the future.
Prior to Apple's disclosure, we had no real evidence of irregularities (only some unfortunate discussions), no harm and the possibility of future damages had been discredited. There was not really any case of the FTC.
Then, after that trial, we discovered that the evidence that Apple had submitted to the FTC to start the case against Qualcomm had been fabricated. That means that the basis of the case was false. There was no evidence to support the FTC's position, and the claim that the consumer (whom the FTC has the mission to help) was or would be harmed.
Even the DoJ was concerned that the judge was going to fail, and one of its reasons was Qualcomm's position as the leading provider that guarantees the leadership of the US. UU 5G
Then, together with the action of the USA. UU Against Huawei, this failure of the FTC, since it could paralyze Qualcomm's revenue stream, could guarantee that the 5G leadership ends with China. Also, this would not be the first time. The government sat on Standard Oil and lost control of the oil market. He sat in RCA, and consumer electronics ended in Asia. He sat in the car companies, and instead of the Ford and GM domination, we have Toyota and VW.
If that happens, the new nickname for the president of the United States could easily become "Trump the Chump". (I'm a little surprised that it has not happened yet).
Ending
All this presents two problems.
First, the government of the United States continues to think tactically, while China is thinking strategically. The trade war itself is impossible to win because it seems that the president lacks the backing of his own government, as he systematically commits suicide at work. Addressing a company that is a National Treasury, such as Huawei, is itself problematic, due to possible actions in retaliation against Apple and other technology providers in the United States. China's indication that it is advancing on the warpath is hugely problematic for sales to that country.
The second problem is that it seems that judges can no longer do the job, and this covers several areas. I recently visited a judge review site, and the average score of 10, with 10 being the best, was a little over 1. Apparently, the judicial system is chasing the US Congress. UU., Which may have the lowest satisfaction score. If a critical mass of people conclude that they can not trust the judicial system, just as we seem to have a critical mass of people who do not trust in the application of the law, I do not see that it ends well for us individually or for the country. People who take the law into their own hands on a scale are called "revolutionaries".
Ironically, I think both problems could be solved with artificial intelligence systems of deep learning and computer simulations. One could model the likely outcomes of movements such as Huawei's, and the other could help judges focus on the evidence and relevant precedents, identify and use accurate testimony and make interpretations consistent with the law.
If used correctly, AI could help solve both problems, but I have doubts about whether they will be applied, much less adequately.
Like many men, I like to be fine when I sleep at night, and my wife usually likes to be warmer. While there are solutions like thermal pads and electric blankets for heat, cooling solutions generally revolve around your air conditioning system. This translates into fights related to the thermostats that I could only win by making the thermostat so complicated that my wife would not want to mess with it.
Therefore, when I realized ChiliPAD years ago, I bought it, and I've been using it for years. The ChiliPAD uses recirculating water, like what is used in racing cars to cool drivers and space suits to cool astronauts. It heats and cools, and eliminates electric fields from near the body. For a long time it was thought that these fields have adverse effects on health, especially for pregnant mothers.
Well, the people of ChiliPAD sent me their latest offer, the Ooler. It has a much more powerful heater / cooler, works with a smartphone application (still in beta version, though), and will do the programming so that your bed is fine when you use it, and you can use the warm to wake up out of the bed quietly in the morning, without waking your spouse.
Now you should place it in a well-ventilated area, since it expels a lot of heat when it cools your bed. It comes in any color as long as that color is white (I personally prefer black), but you can put it in a cabinet whenever you ventilate it (which is what I did).
Oh, another thing that I learned in the most difficult way: if you want this to last a long time, use distilled water. The accumulation of minerals with tap water will eventually cause problems. It's not a cheap date, from US $ 699 for a single one (the ChiliPAD is $ 499) to $ 1,499 for a Cal King (which is what I have).
It does not work well if I do not sleep well, and because Ooler helps me sleep well, like ChiliPAD did, but it's better, it's my product of the week. Seriously, sleep has a massive impact on my quality of life, so it is likely that this will reach my product of the year. We'll see…
In addition, the United States apparently declared war on Huawei, which could actually benefit Huawei. The result of both efforts could be to give the 5G market to China.
It's like watching everyone decide to run naked with really big scissors, and as you try to get that image out of your head, I'll guide you through what happened.
I will finish with my product of the week: an update of a product that has made my summer dream much more comfortable over the years. It's a water-cooled sleep improvement system, like what high-performance racing drivers and astronauts use to stay cool while working.
The history of Huawei
I have been following powerful companies for most of my career, and efforts to regulate them have not only had mixed results but have often had massive unintended consequences. The closest comparison I can make to what is happening between Huawei and the US UU This is what happened between Microsoft and the world in the 90s and early 2000s.
In a series of cases that began largely with the United States DoJ, Microsoft incurred massive penalties for non-competitive behavior. The sanctions caused the company to enter into a crisis and, to get out of that crisis, the executive management massively changed the business model of the company.
Microsoft went from a client blocking policy to an interoperation and open source policy. With Azure, he changed his focus from local hardware, both servers and PCs, to the cloud. Microsoft repaired its internal silos and a series of inefficiencies that had plagued the company for decades.
The result was a very different company, but possibly invulnerable, perhaps surpassed only by Amazon in the cloud and that seems to have a more long-term rise. The signature is so different from what it was that it is almost unrecognizable.
While the competitors who initiated the action against Microsoft thought that it would paralyze the company, in fact they strengthened it, and Microsoft survived Netscape and Sun Microsystems, which were the most aggressive architects of Microsoft's problems.
Huawei is more of a hardware / networking company than a software company like Microsoft, but the US. UU They have been subjecting it to even greater pressure. Huawei is also much more deeply connected to the Chinese government than any company in the United States is connected to the government of the United States.
At the moment, Huawei relies heavily on three US companies: Google for Android, Microsoft for Windows and Qualcomm for smart phone technology. It also depends on an Asian company, Softbank (ARM). All those firms have indicated that they will comply with the US order to stop doing business with Huawei, which would be catastrophic for the firm.
This means that the second largest smartphone provider in the world, with the backing of the Chinese government, will be forced to move away from the US technology. UU And Europe and it will become even more proprietary than Apple.
It is unlikely that China will let Huawei fail, so the result could be an Apple clone backed by the Chinese government with massive Chinese incentives to favor its products in the country. Given that China is the largest and potentially fastest growing global smartphone market, the result would be an inability for US technology providers to compete in the Chinese market.
Because of the scale, it would be an emerging global provider that, thanks to government resources, could undervalue all other providers in the segment with equal or better hardware. Of course, I would still have to capture the developers, but I could end up with the problem doing what Amazon did, and start with the open source version of Android to get an initial reference product.
We are not yet talking about the probable Chinese response against US smartphone providers (and in fact Apple is the only scale and the most likely target). Therefore, the likely outcome of this attack on Huawei is a blockade of US technology providers in China, an approach by the Chinese government on Apple as a problem to be solved, and a Huawei that will be much more powerful, as well as understandably annoying in the united states
This could also, and probably will, block Huawei as the main provider.
The history of Qualcomm
I attended the end of the FTC trial in California, and even before it was revealed in another case that the evidence that Apple had provided to the FTC was false, I did not think I had a case. My evaluation was largely due to two things. The architect of the theory that founded the FTC case, of an economist who seemed to live in an alternative universe, had actually been discredited.
There was no damage to the evidence, and even the possibility of future damage was refuted. The expert's main defense, I'm not kidding, seems to revolve around him, being a legend in his mind surrounded by other economists, all of whom were idiots with mental problems. The arrogance that came off man, particularly since his theory was effectively discarded, was incredible. Still, in her decision, Judge Koh seemed to take the theory as an established law, although she wisely never mentioned Shapero.
The other thing was that the rest of the FTC's argument seemed to revolve around internal memos in which people argued, but in fact they did not, things that would have been problematic for Qualcomm if they had done so. It is not at all unusual for executives to consider actions that have a questionable legal basis before the legal department of the firm enters and sits down, or that the most prudent executives take control.
It is not illegal to consider illegal things, especially if you do not know they are illegal. For example, I could plan a bank robbery, but unless I do, I'm pretty good. Now, I would not recommend doing it, but at this moment, considering making a bad choice is not illegal in itself.
However, given the outcome of this trial, I would certainly suggest that such discussions not be documented in the future and that executives receive regular compliance training so they can avoid such discussions in the future.
Prior to Apple's disclosure, we had no real evidence of irregularities (only some unfortunate discussions), no harm and the possibility of future damages had been discredited. There was not really any case of the FTC.
Then, after that trial, we discovered that the evidence that Apple had submitted to the FTC to start the case against Qualcomm had been fabricated. That means that the basis of the case was false. There was no evidence to support the FTC's position, and the claim that the consumer (whom the FTC has the mission to help) was or would be harmed.
Even the DoJ was concerned that the judge was going to fail, and one of its reasons was Qualcomm's position as the leading provider that guarantees the leadership of the US. UU 5G
Then, together with the action of the USA. UU Against Huawei, this failure of the FTC, since it could paralyze Qualcomm's revenue stream, could guarantee that the 5G leadership ends with China. Also, this would not be the first time. The government sat on Standard Oil and lost control of the oil market. He sat in RCA, and consumer electronics ended in Asia. He sat in the car companies, and instead of the Ford and GM domination, we have Toyota and VW.
If that happens, the new nickname for the president of the United States could easily become "Trump the Chump". (I'm a little surprised that it has not happened yet).
Ending
All this presents two problems.
First, the government of the United States continues to think tactically, while China is thinking strategically. The trade war itself is impossible to win because it seems that the president lacks the backing of his own government, as he systematically commits suicide at work. Addressing a company that is a National Treasury, such as Huawei, is itself problematic, due to possible actions in retaliation against Apple and other technology providers in the United States. China's indication that it is advancing on the warpath is hugely problematic for sales to that country.
The second problem is that it seems that judges can no longer do the job, and this covers several areas. I recently visited a judge review site, and the average score of 10, with 10 being the best, was a little over 1. Apparently, the judicial system is chasing the US Congress. UU., Which may have the lowest satisfaction score. If a critical mass of people conclude that they can not trust the judicial system, just as we seem to have a critical mass of people who do not trust in the application of the law, I do not see that it ends well for us individually or for the country. People who take the law into their own hands on a scale are called "revolutionaries".
Ironically, I think both problems could be solved with artificial intelligence systems of deep learning and computer simulations. One could model the likely outcomes of movements such as Huawei's, and the other could help judges focus on the evidence and relevant precedents, identify and use accurate testimony and make interpretations consistent with the law.
If used correctly, AI could help solve both problems, but I have doubts about whether they will be applied, much less adequately.
Like many men, I like to be fine when I sleep at night, and my wife usually likes to be warmer. While there are solutions like thermal pads and electric blankets for heat, cooling solutions generally revolve around your air conditioning system. This translates into fights related to the thermostats that I could only win by making the thermostat so complicated that my wife would not want to mess with it.
Therefore, when I realized ChiliPAD years ago, I bought it, and I've been using it for years. The ChiliPAD uses recirculating water, like what is used in racing cars to cool drivers and space suits to cool astronauts. It heats and cools, and eliminates electric fields from near the body. For a long time it was thought that these fields have adverse effects on health, especially for pregnant mothers.
Well, the people of ChiliPAD sent me their latest offer, the Ooler. It has a much more powerful heater / cooler, works with a smartphone application (still in beta version, though), and will do the programming so that your bed is fine when you use it, and you can use the warm to wake up out of the bed quietly in the morning, without waking your spouse.
Now you should place it in a well-ventilated area, since it expels a lot of heat when it cools your bed. It comes in any color as long as that color is white (I personally prefer black), but you can put it in a cabinet whenever you ventilate it (which is what I did).
Oh, another thing that I learned in the most difficult way: if you want this to last a long time, use distilled water. The accumulation of minerals with tap water will eventually cause problems. It's not a cheap date, from US $ 699 for a single one (the ChiliPAD is $ 499) to $ 1,499 for a Cal King (which is what I have).
It does not work well if I do not sleep well, and because Ooler helps me sleep well, like ChiliPAD did, but it's better, it's my product of the week. Seriously, sleep has a massive impact on my quality of life, so it is likely that this will reach my product of the year. We'll see…
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