Amazon plans to begin deliveries of drones in the coming months. Drones have become much more capable, safer and less noisy, but there are five other problems that must be addressed before this delivery method reaches its full potential.
Now, do not get me wrong. I look forward to the delivery of unmanned aircraft, which could be ideal for Uber meals if it were not for the problem of the cold air blowing in the food all the time of transit. However, there are several things that need to be addressed before most of us have drones leaving our packages.
I will explain and then close with my product of the week, a book this time. It is one that anyone interested in the history of Silicon Valley should read: 3Com. This is the story of the first dragon in Silicon Valley and how he died.
1. A Drone mailbox
We currently have a big problem with the theft when people deliver our products. Typically, thieves expect the dealer to deliver the package, wait a few minutes and then get the package left on the porch.
With the drones you can see where they go from a distance. They should fall into an open area such as a driveway where the package is visible from the street (if there is no backyard) and should avoid the lawn due to sprinklers. For places where there are many trees, apartment buildings or in dense neighborhoods in the city, there may not be a safe place (other than a roof) to place the package.
Eventually, houses and buildings will be designed with this in mind (you could even use helipads that are not used at the top of some buildings). I can even imagine large windows that would open and allow the drone to drop the package inside (of course, if the window does not open, it will undoubtedly be a very expensive event).
Until we discover where these drones can drop packets safely, a large number of locations simply will not be secure or accessible enough for drones deliveries.
2. Climate impact
Drivers of delivery vehicles must work in most climates. However, when it is very hot, the air density decreases, drastically reducing the lifting capacity of aircraft (including drones). When it is very cold, the energetic capacity of electric vehicles falls like a rock.
In addition, unmanned aircraft will be dangerous in snow, fog and rain (especially with lightning), so these conditions will generally not be flight conditions. Strong and gusty winds are also problematic. Weather patterns suggest that there will be many areas and times during the year when drone delivery will simply not be practical.
Delivery drones will need to handle a broad spectrum of weather conditions, otherwise you can not depend on them. If you can not depend on them, you can not get rid of your human drivers who can deal with the weather.
3. Drone abuse
People are already knocking down drones. There are many people with too much time on their hands who think of new and creative ways to hurt themselves.
Whether we are talking about people pulling these things down, sending other drones to mess with them or just trying to hit them with things they can throw, preventing the drones from being destroyed will be problematic.
Apart from the mischief, this would be a way to get ownership of the payload of the drone (actually I'm anticipating drone pirates at some point). Companies that use drones will need a better way to determine if the plane is at risk and to bring to justice anyone who intentionally harms one.
These things are not cheap, and the loss of a significant number in a short period of time could affect a delivery company. Protecting them against abuse needs additional thinking.
4. The scope of a drone
Batteries are still the weakest link in any electrical solution (most of the new drones proposed are electric). The weight and size, or aerodynamics, of the product delivered will have a major adverse impact on the range of the drone, so it is essential to consider these problems before the aircraft moves.
The range changes a lot with the heat, the cold and various climatic events. A headwind, for example, will drastically reduce the range of an unmanned aircraft, not to mention the wind that exceeds the maximum speed of the drone.
In fact, it may be necessary to change the packaging a lot to make it more water resistant, more aerodynamic and easier to transport for a drone.
5. Power lines
The visual sensors that are used in autonomous vehicles have improved a lot, but they are still not very good in all kinds of weather or with small objects. Even people have trouble seeing electric lines in low light or when the sun is in their eyes.
Power lines are above ground in many areas and have historically been a big problem for helicopters, but even some aircraft have hit them. The planes are at risk only because of the huge power distribution lines, but the drones will have to deal with the much more difficult to see the municipal power lines.
Granted, as long as they stay on vertical takeoff and landing and move horizontally only when they are more than 100 feet or more, this problem could be eliminated to a large extent, but they will also have to fly around trees, between buildings and during several Wind Events, all of which could put them in contact with power lines. It will not be enough to dodge the big ones, since many houses have power lines that go from them to power poles.
Ending
Keep in mind that I have not mentioned problems such as the things that fall from the sky or the terrorists that bombard people with packages delivered by drones, which I hope will happen once we have thousands of these things going around.
Nor have I addressed traffic management, which will be a big problem on a large scale. However, these problems will not materialize until the industry can wrap its arms around the first set, because if there are long periods of time when the drones can not fly, you can not trust them. Companies will need their traditional human distribution systems to stay intact.
The product of the week of Rob Enderle
It's summer, when many of us go to places where we want to relax, read quietly and maybe learn something new. I highly recommend a new book co-authored by an old friend of mine, Jeff Chase. It's about 3Com, the first dragon in Silicon Valley.
3Com by Jeff Chase with Jon Zilber, book cover
You may have heard of unicorns, but dragons are even rarer. These are companies that are so successful that they effectively replace the entire investment fund that was used to create them.
3Com preceded Cisco and should have become that company, but through a series of errors, a really horrible merging process and a series of strategic and tactical errors, the 3Com dragon was killed.
The authors, Chase and Jon Zilber, do a good job of pointing out what 3Com did right or wrong, and by contrasting Cisco's rise with the fall of 3Com. What is particularly interesting, or worrisome, depending on your frame of reference, is that 3Com used an acquisition process that is common in the industry, and that is partially what killed it.
Other errors were trying to persecute Cisco and not concentrate on the market he knew. This history of corporate failure could be in the future of most companies, I'm thinking of Apple at this time. It's like that old saying: "Those who do not learn from history are condemned to repeat it."
Reading this book is an excellent way to learn how not to make a series of very common mistakes and avoid the fate of 3Com.
Helping businesses avoid mistakes is a lot of what I do these days, and this book has become a fundamental part of my library. I recommend it for your summer reading, so the 3Com book is my product of the week.
Now, do not get me wrong. I look forward to the delivery of unmanned aircraft, which could be ideal for Uber meals if it were not for the problem of the cold air blowing in the food all the time of transit. However, there are several things that need to be addressed before most of us have drones leaving our packages.
I will explain and then close with my product of the week, a book this time. It is one that anyone interested in the history of Silicon Valley should read: 3Com. This is the story of the first dragon in Silicon Valley and how he died.
1. A Drone mailbox
We currently have a big problem with the theft when people deliver our products. Typically, thieves expect the dealer to deliver the package, wait a few minutes and then get the package left on the porch.
With the drones you can see where they go from a distance. They should fall into an open area such as a driveway where the package is visible from the street (if there is no backyard) and should avoid the lawn due to sprinklers. For places where there are many trees, apartment buildings or in dense neighborhoods in the city, there may not be a safe place (other than a roof) to place the package.
Eventually, houses and buildings will be designed with this in mind (you could even use helipads that are not used at the top of some buildings). I can even imagine large windows that would open and allow the drone to drop the package inside (of course, if the window does not open, it will undoubtedly be a very expensive event).
Until we discover where these drones can drop packets safely, a large number of locations simply will not be secure or accessible enough for drones deliveries.
2. Climate impact
Drivers of delivery vehicles must work in most climates. However, when it is very hot, the air density decreases, drastically reducing the lifting capacity of aircraft (including drones). When it is very cold, the energetic capacity of electric vehicles falls like a rock.
In addition, unmanned aircraft will be dangerous in snow, fog and rain (especially with lightning), so these conditions will generally not be flight conditions. Strong and gusty winds are also problematic. Weather patterns suggest that there will be many areas and times during the year when drone delivery will simply not be practical.
Delivery drones will need to handle a broad spectrum of weather conditions, otherwise you can not depend on them. If you can not depend on them, you can not get rid of your human drivers who can deal with the weather.
3. Drone abuse
People are already knocking down drones. There are many people with too much time on their hands who think of new and creative ways to hurt themselves.
Whether we are talking about people pulling these things down, sending other drones to mess with them or just trying to hit them with things they can throw, preventing the drones from being destroyed will be problematic.
Apart from the mischief, this would be a way to get ownership of the payload of the drone (actually I'm anticipating drone pirates at some point). Companies that use drones will need a better way to determine if the plane is at risk and to bring to justice anyone who intentionally harms one.
These things are not cheap, and the loss of a significant number in a short period of time could affect a delivery company. Protecting them against abuse needs additional thinking.
4. The scope of a drone
Batteries are still the weakest link in any electrical solution (most of the new drones proposed are electric). The weight and size, or aerodynamics, of the product delivered will have a major adverse impact on the range of the drone, so it is essential to consider these problems before the aircraft moves.
The range changes a lot with the heat, the cold and various climatic events. A headwind, for example, will drastically reduce the range of an unmanned aircraft, not to mention the wind that exceeds the maximum speed of the drone.
In fact, it may be necessary to change the packaging a lot to make it more water resistant, more aerodynamic and easier to transport for a drone.
5. Power lines
The visual sensors that are used in autonomous vehicles have improved a lot, but they are still not very good in all kinds of weather or with small objects. Even people have trouble seeing electric lines in low light or when the sun is in their eyes.
Power lines are above ground in many areas and have historically been a big problem for helicopters, but even some aircraft have hit them. The planes are at risk only because of the huge power distribution lines, but the drones will have to deal with the much more difficult to see the municipal power lines.
Granted, as long as they stay on vertical takeoff and landing and move horizontally only when they are more than 100 feet or more, this problem could be eliminated to a large extent, but they will also have to fly around trees, between buildings and during several Wind Events, all of which could put them in contact with power lines. It will not be enough to dodge the big ones, since many houses have power lines that go from them to power poles.
Ending
Keep in mind that I have not mentioned problems such as the things that fall from the sky or the terrorists that bombard people with packages delivered by drones, which I hope will happen once we have thousands of these things going around.
Nor have I addressed traffic management, which will be a big problem on a large scale. However, these problems will not materialize until the industry can wrap its arms around the first set, because if there are long periods of time when the drones can not fly, you can not trust them. Companies will need their traditional human distribution systems to stay intact.
The product of the week of Rob Enderle
It's summer, when many of us go to places where we want to relax, read quietly and maybe learn something new. I highly recommend a new book co-authored by an old friend of mine, Jeff Chase. It's about 3Com, the first dragon in Silicon Valley.
3Com by Jeff Chase with Jon Zilber, book cover
You may have heard of unicorns, but dragons are even rarer. These are companies that are so successful that they effectively replace the entire investment fund that was used to create them.
3Com preceded Cisco and should have become that company, but through a series of errors, a really horrible merging process and a series of strategic and tactical errors, the 3Com dragon was killed.
The authors, Chase and Jon Zilber, do a good job of pointing out what 3Com did right or wrong, and by contrasting Cisco's rise with the fall of 3Com. What is particularly interesting, or worrisome, depending on your frame of reference, is that 3Com used an acquisition process that is common in the industry, and that is partially what killed it.
Other errors were trying to persecute Cisco and not concentrate on the market he knew. This history of corporate failure could be in the future of most companies, I'm thinking of Apple at this time. It's like that old saying: "Those who do not learn from history are condemned to repeat it."
Reading this book is an excellent way to learn how not to make a series of very common mistakes and avoid the fate of 3Com.
Helping businesses avoid mistakes is a lot of what I do these days, and this book has become a fundamental part of my library. I recommend it for your summer reading, so the 3Com book is my product of the week.
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