These could be the worst times for high-line phones.
Sundar Pichai, Google's chief executive, told Alphabet shareholders Monday that his company's main phones, Pixel 3 and Pixel 3 XL, released in the last fall, met a few "years after a year".
Samsung claimed that its main telephone lineup, which included the S10 Galaxy, was sold well, but it acknowledged that sales were cannibalized by its cheaper models.
Meanwhile, Apple has seen dropped sales of iPhone, year after year, 15 percent during the 2018 vacations, despite holidays typically being hot times for smart sales. Wall Street analysts predicted further drops during the first three months of 2019.
"We are seeing a reaction to these expensive cell phones," said Ramon T. Llamas, senior researcher for technology technologies and trends at IDC, a market research company in Framingham, Massachusetts.
"At a time when innovation started slowly, consumers can not justify the expense for increased change and go back to less expensive things," he told TechNewsWorld.
"A thousand dollars on the phone is quite ridiculous," said Phoenix, Arizona, Jim McGregor, chief analyst at Tirias Research, high tech research and advisory company.
"People should not pay that," he said to TechNewsWorld. "They do not get the value for their money."
Cutting Price Wall
Many consumers hit the wall when it comes to what they are willing to pay for a mobile phone, Charles King, chief analyst of Pund-IT, has been observing a technological advisory firm in Hayward, California.
"Previously, high quality mobile phones have delivered great new features or design points that have diminished the sting of their much higher costs," he said to TechNewsWorld. "More improvements do not offer same pain."
People still hold their phones, not only because they see their existing phone quite good, but also because they need to pay longer for it, because they paid so much for it in the first place, noticed St. Paul, Minn.-based Gerrit Schneemann, head of the IHS Markit Technology.
In addition, "in areas where the total market is still growing strong, high-end devices are outside the reach of many new and existing smartphones, limiting further the address market," he told TechNewsWorld.
Flame phones are now less attractive, because they are more about prestige than any significant difference, noted Tuong Nguyen, senior analyst at Gartner, a research and advisory firm based on Stamford, Connecticut.
For example, rooms have previously been a key divergent, but "now many middle-line phones have excellent cameras," he said to TechNewsWorld. "I'm at the point that it is not worth the ordinary consumer to replace an existing phone for even with a better camera."
Mid-Range Phones
While the high-tech phone market crashes, it seems that medium-sized telephones are fine, the king of Pund-IT said.
"Reports that Google plans to introduce a newer reduced Pixel 3 phone, suggest that the company goes to where customers want to be," he said. "I'm expecting other terminal manufacturers to follow a similar way."
These reports say that the new "Pixel III" could appear in the next month, when Google holds its annual I / O program for developers. "It will become a change of the highest guys to the middle strands," Tirias McGregor predicted.
"With the help of Qualcomm and others, advanced phone features are added to the middle ranges," he continued. "If these main OEMs continue those really expensive phones, they will still lose market share."
Mid-gaming and low phones are compatible with emerging markets and the economic situation of users, pointed out IHS Schneemann.
"In South East Asia, India or Latin America, medium and low-level devices are accessible options for more users," he said.
"The struggle of Apple in India reflects the reality that most Indian users can not buy an iPhone," Schneemann added.
Approaching saturation levels
Even a mid-range phone can be difficult to sell in the future.
"I think we are approaching the saturation of the overall smartphone market," said Frank E. Gillett, principal analyst at Forrester Research, a market research company based in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
"As we approach saturation, the smartphone market will become a replacement market," he told TechNewsWorld.
Meanwhile, high-end smartphones will approach saturation before the general market.
"We're going to see a decline, and high-end smartphones will stabilize at a new level," Gillett explained.
"There's still going to be a group of people who want big-screen smartphones," he continued, "but that means they'll be kept longer and the buyer's market will not expand anymore."
5G to the rescue?
A wild card for future sales of flagship phones could be 5G technology, which promises faster data speeds. However, those sales will not be immediate.
"Although the 5G launch will be faster than 4G, it will take subscribers some time to get access to scale," Schneeman explained.
"In the US, Verizon deployments are geographically limited," he said.
"In addition, there is still no killer application that not only makes existing premium smartphone users update faster, but also moves subscribers with cheaper phones to move into the premium price range," Schneeman added.
"I think 5G will have a significant impact," he said, "once mobile devices are available at more than one price level."
Media and services that take advantage of 5G will be deployed much more slowly than expected, King predicted.
"It would be a mistake to believe that the 5G will only somehow take the smartphone market out of its current malaise," he said.
"Nobody is going to get rid of their phones because of 5G," said Gillett of Forrester.
In addition, interesting 5G features will be limited to dense urban areas and will cost more to use, he said.
"Because it's more expensive, people will wait until they get their next phone to get 5G," Gillett said. "That will not fuel any growth."
Proponents of 5G may have problems selling technology to consumers.
"The consumers of Joe and Jane have no idea what 5G means, nor do they care, at least not right now," said Llamas of IDC.
"Is 5G going to save smartphones?" I ask. "I do not believe it, if it is, it will take a lot of time and a lot of consumer education."
Sundar Pichai, Google's chief executive, told Alphabet shareholders Monday that his company's main phones, Pixel 3 and Pixel 3 XL, released in the last fall, met a few "years after a year".
Samsung claimed that its main telephone lineup, which included the S10 Galaxy, was sold well, but it acknowledged that sales were cannibalized by its cheaper models.
Meanwhile, Apple has seen dropped sales of iPhone, year after year, 15 percent during the 2018 vacations, despite holidays typically being hot times for smart sales. Wall Street analysts predicted further drops during the first three months of 2019.
"We are seeing a reaction to these expensive cell phones," said Ramon T. Llamas, senior researcher for technology technologies and trends at IDC, a market research company in Framingham, Massachusetts.
"At a time when innovation started slowly, consumers can not justify the expense for increased change and go back to less expensive things," he told TechNewsWorld.
"A thousand dollars on the phone is quite ridiculous," said Phoenix, Arizona, Jim McGregor, chief analyst at Tirias Research, high tech research and advisory company.
"People should not pay that," he said to TechNewsWorld. "They do not get the value for their money."
Cutting Price Wall
Many consumers hit the wall when it comes to what they are willing to pay for a mobile phone, Charles King, chief analyst of Pund-IT, has been observing a technological advisory firm in Hayward, California.
"Previously, high quality mobile phones have delivered great new features or design points that have diminished the sting of their much higher costs," he said to TechNewsWorld. "More improvements do not offer same pain."
People still hold their phones, not only because they see their existing phone quite good, but also because they need to pay longer for it, because they paid so much for it in the first place, noticed St. Paul, Minn.-based Gerrit Schneemann, head of the IHS Markit Technology.
In addition, "in areas where the total market is still growing strong, high-end devices are outside the reach of many new and existing smartphones, limiting further the address market," he told TechNewsWorld.
Flame phones are now less attractive, because they are more about prestige than any significant difference, noted Tuong Nguyen, senior analyst at Gartner, a research and advisory firm based on Stamford, Connecticut.
For example, rooms have previously been a key divergent, but "now many middle-line phones have excellent cameras," he said to TechNewsWorld. "I'm at the point that it is not worth the ordinary consumer to replace an existing phone for even with a better camera."
Mid-Range Phones
While the high-tech phone market crashes, it seems that medium-sized telephones are fine, the king of Pund-IT said.
"Reports that Google plans to introduce a newer reduced Pixel 3 phone, suggest that the company goes to where customers want to be," he said. "I'm expecting other terminal manufacturers to follow a similar way."
These reports say that the new "Pixel III" could appear in the next month, when Google holds its annual I / O program for developers. "It will become a change of the highest guys to the middle strands," Tirias McGregor predicted.
"With the help of Qualcomm and others, advanced phone features are added to the middle ranges," he continued. "If these main OEMs continue those really expensive phones, they will still lose market share."
Mid-gaming and low phones are compatible with emerging markets and the economic situation of users, pointed out IHS Schneemann.
"In South East Asia, India or Latin America, medium and low-level devices are accessible options for more users," he said.
"The struggle of Apple in India reflects the reality that most Indian users can not buy an iPhone," Schneemann added.
Approaching saturation levels
Even a mid-range phone can be difficult to sell in the future.
"I think we are approaching the saturation of the overall smartphone market," said Frank E. Gillett, principal analyst at Forrester Research, a market research company based in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
"As we approach saturation, the smartphone market will become a replacement market," he told TechNewsWorld.
Meanwhile, high-end smartphones will approach saturation before the general market.
"We're going to see a decline, and high-end smartphones will stabilize at a new level," Gillett explained.
"There's still going to be a group of people who want big-screen smartphones," he continued, "but that means they'll be kept longer and the buyer's market will not expand anymore."
5G to the rescue?
A wild card for future sales of flagship phones could be 5G technology, which promises faster data speeds. However, those sales will not be immediate.
"Although the 5G launch will be faster than 4G, it will take subscribers some time to get access to scale," Schneeman explained.
"In the US, Verizon deployments are geographically limited," he said.
"In addition, there is still no killer application that not only makes existing premium smartphone users update faster, but also moves subscribers with cheaper phones to move into the premium price range," Schneeman added.
"I think 5G will have a significant impact," he said, "once mobile devices are available at more than one price level."
Media and services that take advantage of 5G will be deployed much more slowly than expected, King predicted.
"It would be a mistake to believe that the 5G will only somehow take the smartphone market out of its current malaise," he said.
"Nobody is going to get rid of their phones because of 5G," said Gillett of Forrester.
In addition, interesting 5G features will be limited to dense urban areas and will cost more to use, he said.
"Because it's more expensive, people will wait until they get their next phone to get 5G," Gillett said. "That will not fuel any growth."
Proponents of 5G may have problems selling technology to consumers.
"The consumers of Joe and Jane have no idea what 5G means, nor do they care, at least not right now," said Llamas of IDC.
"Is 5G going to save smartphones?" I ask. "I do not believe it, if it is, it will take a lot of time and a lot of consumer education."
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